Unprecedented Climatic Projections
In the year 2023, European Union scientists are making a dire prediction. They assert that this year is on track to become the hottest in recorded history, surpassing all previous records by a significant margin. This alarming projection is a result of the continuous release of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, coupled with the emergence of the El Niño climate pattern.
Breaking Records in October
Last month, the world experienced a climate anomaly. October 2023 saw average temperatures soaring to unprecedented heights, exceeding the previous highest recorded for October, set in 2019, by a remarkable 0.4 degrees Celsius. Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), describes this temperature surge as “very extreme.
Virtually Certain to Set a New Record
According to the C3S, these trends make it “virtually certain” that 2023 will go down in history as the hottest year ever recorded. The primary culprits behind this relentless heat are the persistent emissions of greenhouse gases stemming from the combustion of fossil fuels and the natural climate pattern, El Niño, which warms surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Historical Perspective
Samantha Burgess emphasizes the gravity of the situation, stating, “When we combine our data with that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we can assert that this is the hottest year in the last 125,000 years.” This assertion is backed by long-term data collected from various sources, including ice cores, tree rings, and coral deposits, which are monitored by the UN Climate Science Panel and the IPCC.
Impact of Climate Change
The effects of climate change have grown increasingly destructive, with 2023 witnessing catastrophic floods in Libya, severe heatwaves in South America, and the most devastating wildfire season ever experienced in Canada.
Global Temperature Surge
On a global scale, the average surface air temperature for October stood at 15.3°C, marking a 1.7°C increase from the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period, as defined by Copernicus. The only other month to break temperature records by such a significant margin was September 2023.
The Ongoing El Niño Effect
The combination of human-induced climate change and the recurring El Niño phenomenon fuels concerns about further heat-driven destruction. Australia, in particular, is bracing for a severe bushfire season amid hot and dry conditions, attributed to the ongoing El Niño weather pattern, expected to persist until at least April 2024, as confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization.
The Upcoming UN Climate Talks
This significant revelation comes just three weeks before governments convene in Dubai for this year’s UN climate talks, known as COP28. During this meeting, nearly 200 countries will engage in discussions to formulate stronger actions to combat climate change.
Pivotal Question at COP28
A central question at COP28 will be whether governments can unite, for the first time, to phase out the burning of fossil fuels responsible for carbon dioxide emissions. Despite the ambitious targets set by countries to gradually reduce emissions, progress has been limited, with global CO2 emissions reaching a record high in 2022.
Urgent Call for Action
Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds, delivers a crucial reminder, “We must not allow the devastating floods, bushfires, storms, and heatwaves experienced this year to become the new normal.” By taking rapid action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, we have the potential to cut the rate of global warming in half.
Hottest Year in 125,000 Years Warns EU Scientists
